Enhancing Credibility of Effects Modeling for High-Consequence Loss Events At Natural Gas Transportation Pipelines in Brazil

Enhancing credibility of effects modeling for high-consequence loss events at natural gas transportation pipelines in Brazil

TRANSPETRO has been contracting quantitative risk analysis for natural gas pipelines and their associated installations as a legal and internal requirement. These studies have been carried out by a series of consultants which estimate the magnitude of possible damage using different software available in the market. This fact led to a variety of results based on the premises adopted by consultants (most of them depending on the risk analyst) and differences regarding the peculiarities of mathematical models.

As there was, in several cases, inconsistency amongst results, mostly when tabulating results of similar pipelines which presented discrepant outcomes, the main concern was related to the credibility of results.

TRANSPETRO team, mainly field personnel, must have confidence on these data, not only to carry out preventive actions inside vulnerable area, but also to be aware of these ranges in case of a real emergency, thus providing evacuation and escaping actions, as necessary.

Based on this scenario, TRANSPETRO's Natural Gas Division has invested in purchasing a Consequence Analysis software in order to model the effects for high-consequence loss events at natural gas transportation pipelines in Brazil as an effort to obtain more consistent and reliable results.

As per the above description, this paper aims to present results and benefits of the practical usage of consequence modeling information in risk management at Natural Gas Division.