Nth Plant Vs. Nth Supply: Feedstock Costs and Supply Uncertainty As Function of Number of Biorefineries

“Pioneer plant”, and “Nth-plant” are terms used to characterize the advancement of the bioenergy industry, technology, and associated cost conditions for biorefineries. Though pioneer plants are likely to be located in areas where feedstock is most abundant and least costly, they are dependent on new technology and consequently have higher investment risks. Though Nth-plants are not likely to be located in the most resource rich areas, they would take advantage of a mature technology and lower investment risks. Thus, information on biorefinery-specific feedstock costs and cost variability can be used in conjunction with information on pioneer- or Nth-plant willingness to pay for feedstock and risk tolerance to estimate the number and location of biorefineries that may be economically accessible. To elucidate biorefinery costs that may be incurred by both pioneer and Nth-plant biorefineries, this analysis reports supply curves in terms of biorefinery-specific feedstock costs (i.e., each of n number of biorefineries within a fleet of biorefineries) and associated cost variability. The potential for depots to mitigate exposure to feedstock supply variability is also explored. Final results are in preparation.