281838 Industrial Sectors and Integrated Solutions (ISIS) - A Techno–Economic and Multi-Pollutant Modeling Framework for Comprehensive Regulatory Analysis

Wednesday, October 31, 2012: 5:15 PM
327 (Convention Center )
Nabanita Modak1, Gurbakhash S. Bhander2, Jacky Rosati3, Alex Macpherson4 and Elineth Torres4, (1)Office of Research and Development, Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education/US EPA, Durham, NC, (2)Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Durham, NC, (3)Office of Research and Development, US EPA, Durham, NC, (4)US EPA, Durham, NC

Industrial Sectors and Integrated solutions (ISIS) - A Techno–Economic and Multi-Pollutant Modeling Framework for Comprehensive Regulatory Analysis

Nabanita Modak1, Gurbakhash Bhander2, Jacky Rosati2, Alex Macpherson3, Elineth Torres3

1Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education

2APPCD, NRMRL, Office of Research and Development, US EPA

3Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US EPA

In 2004, based on recommendations made by the National Research Council (NRC), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided to develop integrated assessment techniques to monitor and manage air quality for the protection of the environment. The NRC recommendations and the EPA response provided the foundation to develop “multi-pollutant and sector-based analyses and approaches” (EPA Documents, 2012) to manage air quality. However, an appropriate mathematical modeling framework was required to facilitate the required analyses to support this new approach to air quality management. After careful consideration of data needs, EPA decided to initiate development of the Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (ISIS) model.

ISIS is a multi-sector, multi-product, dynamic linear modeling framework that evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of emissions reduction strategies for multiple air pollutants. It is primarily a techno-economic model that considers several plant-level economic and technical factors such as the type of emissions units, production capacity, location, cost of production, and applicable emission controls. The model analyzes and evaluates both environmental and economic performances with and without policy constraints. Thus, it is essentially an optimization tool that helps policymakers identify cost-effective regulations for criteria and hazardous air pollutants that could potentially offer some attractive solutions to the industrial sectors.

ISIS was initially used to analyze holistic multi-pollutant options for the cement industry. Currently, EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) in collaboration with Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) is expanding the ISIS modeling framework to include the pulp and paper and iron and steel sectors.

This paper discusses ISIS model's capabilities, basic framework, and modeling flexibilities. The paper also elucidates how the design and implementation of the model successfully address the substantial benefits and challenges of multi-pollutant and sector-based analyses and approaches. ISIS is coded in General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS) language. The input data for the model include production costs, fuel type and intensity, emission intensity, elasticity of demand, discount rate, escalation rate, economic life of a plant, emission abatement technologies, recycled products, import, and export. All the data are organized into a Microsoft Excel and Access database. Based upon user specifications, the model extracts input data from the database and pre-processes it to obtain suitable input parameters for the model equations. Once the data have been pre-processed, ISIS uses a solver application (from GAMS) to determine the optimal levels of production, imports, exports and controls required to meet the market demand and emission constraints, while maximizing total surplus. From the illustration of the output data, users would be able to identify optimal emission reduction strategies that are cost-effective and protective of the environment.

 


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