Assessing Potential Value of R&D Opportunities Via Explicit Assumption Vs. Implicit Experience or Learning Curve Approaches

Experience or learning curves are often used to predict future cost reductions in known technologies.   They are inappropriately applied in new technology development, where technical risks are high and incompletely identified or defined.   Rational approaches to assessing risk and future potential during the screening and early development phases of R&D are presented, relative to use of experience and learning curves later in the deployment phase.