R&D and technology planning frequently is done via extrapolation of past businesses and technologies, using the core competencies of the existing organizations. Occasionally, this results in disastrous consequences when a given technology is totally displaced by a replacement technology which is totally foreign to the organization. Everyday examples include the evolution of "image capturing" from etching to painting to printing to wet chemical photography to electronic photography. Each of these approaches uses different skills and competencies and significantly different technical approaches.

When one studies the evolution of intellectual property, a predictive set of technology development lines can be deduced, which allow improved strategic and R&D planning that stays one step ahead of discontinuities and anticipates them. These patterns of evolution are a key part of the TRIZ "Inventive Problem Solving" process which has been derived from the study of the global patent literature. This allows an organization to plan much more effectively in terms of budgets, types of technical disciplines needed, and types of customers and potential customers which which to partner.

This talk will review these basic patterns and demonstrate their use in strategic technology planning.